All value bets across every open market, ranked by edge. Status tells you whether to bet now or wait for fresher models.
Model freshness — current time: — UTC
Analyse market
Paste a Polymarket URL to load buckets automatically, then run the forecast analysis.
Step 1 — Load from Polymarket
Paste a URL above — city, date and buckets will all fill in automatically.
Step 2 — Confirm details
Enter coordinates for your custom city:
Step 3 — Buckets
Temperature bucketMarket yes %
Results tracker
Paper trades logged automatically from the briefing. Results resolve overnight — check here each morning.
📋 Paper trades
Auto-logged from briefing · resolves overnight from Polymarket
Manual trade log — for real bets or manual paper trades
Weather Edge — User Guide
The definitive reference: how the app works, how to use it, and the betting strategy behind it.
1 · What this app does and why it works
Polymarket runs daily weather markets where traders bet on whether the temperature in a given city will land in a specific range. The market price reflects collective human judgment about the probability. Weather Edge replaces that human judgment with something better: a 31-member numerical weather prediction ensemble that produces a genuine probability distribution across outcomes.
The edge comes from a structural asymmetry that will not close: processing 31 ensemble forecasts and comparing them to market prices requires System 2 thinking — slow, deliberate, computational. The people pricing these markets use System 1 — fast, intuitive, heuristic. System 1 is incapable of running the calculation. This is not a temporary inefficiency. It is permanent, because it is cognitive.
The app automates the entire System 2 process: fetch models → compute probabilities → compare to market → size the bet → log and track. Your job is to check it twice a day and press the button.